Cutthroat

Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, Arizona

Tonight: low 31 °F, calm and dry.

Nights by month

Night lows from 2016 to 2025: a typical night, and the cold one that comes 1 night in 10.

The mildest nights are in July, typically 51°F. The coldest are in January, when 1 night in 10 drops to 7°F. Frost is common in January, February, March, April, May, October, November and December.

Typical nightCold night (1 in 10)
  1. Jan17°F 7°FBag comfortable to 10°F · frost 100% · rain or snow 22% of days
  2. Feb19°F 7°FBag comfortable to 5°F · frost 98% · rain or snow 23% of days
  3. Mar23°F 12°FBag comfortable to 15°F · frost 94% · rain or snow 24% of days
  4. Apr29°F 20°FBag comfortable to 20°F · frost 71% · rain or snow 13% of days
  5. May37°F 29°FBag comfortable to 30°F · frost 27% · rain or snow 19% of days
  6. Jun48°F 40°FBag comfortable to 40°F · frost 0% · rain or snow 28% of days
  7. Jul51°F 48°FBag comfortable to 50°F · frost 0% · rain or snow 53% of days
  8. Aug50°F 46°FBag comfortable to 45°F · frost 0% · rain or snow 52% of days
  9. Sep45°F 40°FBag comfortable to 40°F · frost 1% · rain or snow 29% of days
  10. Oct37°F 28°FBag comfortable to 30°F · frost 23% · rain or snow 19% of days
  11. Nov (this month)29°F 19°FBag comfortable to 20°F · frost 65% · rain or snow 13% of days
  12. Dec23°F 10°FBag comfortable to 10°F · frost 94% · rain or snow 20% of days

| = 32°F

History: ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis via Open-Meteo, corrected to the site's elevation. Bag rating: the comfort rating that keeps you warm in a tent on 9 of 10 nights that month.

Tonight

Rough nightTuesday, November 10, 10 p.m. to 7 a.m.

Needs more warmth: sleeping bag

Your setup looks too cold for this night

Expected from around 10 p.m.

Your sleeping bag is not warm enough for this night.

Best change

Use a sleeping bag rated comfortable at about 30°F or colder (estimate).

  • A liner or warm clothes add a few degrees, but not enough to close this gap on their own.

This is based on typical values for the gear types you picked, so treat it as an estimate.

  • Low outside31°F
  • Moisturedry
  • Windcalm

Your night

  1. 10 p.m. to 3 a.m.Chilly. Add a layerAir around you 37 to 36°F.
  2. 3 a.m. until morningCold. Your setup is not warm enoughAir around you 35 to 32°F.
Every hour
  • 10 p.m.37°Fchilly
  • 11 p.m.36°Fchilly
  • midnight36°Fchilly
  • 1 a.m.37°Fchilly
  • 2 a.m.36°Fchilly
  • 3 a.m.35°Fcold
  • 4 a.m.34°Fcold
  • 5 a.m.33°Fcold
  • 6 a.m.33°Fcold
  • 7 a.m.32°Fcold

Times are local time at your spot (GMT-7).

What works tonight

The gear this night calls for, for someone who sleeps like you.

  • Missing

    Sleeping bag

    Comfort 30°F or colder

    Usually sold as a 21° bag. The number in a bag's name is the limit, not the comfort.

  • Missing

    Underneath you

    R2.5 or more

    The R-value says how well a pad keeps the cold ground out.

  • Worth adding

    Also useful

    A bag liner

    Adds a few degrees to the bag you already own.

Before you sleep

  • Put on a warm layer and a hat before about 10 p.m., or go to bed already wearing them.
  • Eat a proper meal with some fat before bed. Your body keeps burning it through the night.
  • Pee right before you get in your bag. Getting out at 3 a.m. in the cold is worse.
  • Sleep in dry clothes, not the ones you wore all day. Damp fabric pulls heat out of you.
  • Fill a sturdy water bottle with hot (not boiling) water, check the lid does not leak, and put it in your bag by your core or feet.
How we estimated this

At the coldest hour (7 a.m.):

Outside at your spot
31°F
Warmth your shelter holds
+2 °F
Clear-sky cooling
−1 °F
Air around you
32°F
Your bag's comfort rating
39°F
Cold ground through what you lie on
+4 °F
Your comfort limit
43°F

11 °F short, so you will likely be cold.

Assumptions

  • Bag categories use typical ratings as sold: summer about 50 °F (10 °C), 3-season about 30 °F (-1 °C), winter about 15 °F (-9 °C). The number in a bag's name is usually its lower limit, so its comfort rating is about 9 °F (5 °C) warmer.
  • What you lie on: foam mat about R2, thin air pad about R1.5, insulated pad about R3.5, winter pad R5 and up, van bed about R4, air mattress about R0.5. Colder ground needs a higher R-value.
  • Shelters hold a few degrees early in the night and less towards morning. Wind and clear, calm skies take warmth away.
  • Weather: Open-Meteo forecast for your spot, on a grid of a few kilometers, corrected to its height.
  • These are rules of thumb, not measurements. People and gear vary.

A forecast, not a promise. Mountains, valleys and water make their own weather, so trust what you see and feel on site. Terms and liability

Checked for a double-wall tent, a 3-season bag and a thin air pad. Check your own gear here.

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